While it is not clear if this is part of a larger trend yet, it does suggest Biden’s campaign is still competitive.

With the upcoming election on November 5th, Americans have realized they are getting a rematch of the 2020 election, much to their chagrin. With that frustration, it can be easy for people to feel disheartened and even disenchanted with the election, and for some, it appeared as though that was the case, pushing Biden behind his GOP opponent. However, that may be about to change. 

A Change in Polling

A recent Bloomberg and Morning Consult poll showed that Biden has begun chipping away at Trump’s lead in key swing states. Describing the shift, Hill staff writer Brett Samuels explained: 

President Biden has narrowed the gap against former President Trump in six out of seven key battleground states over the past month, according to a poll that hints at a likely close general election race between the two men in November.

A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll published Tuesday found Biden still trailing Trump overall among all voters in the seven battleground states likely to determine the outcome of the election. But it had good news for Biden, as he chipped away at Trump’s lead almost across the board and overtook the former President in one state.

The poll found Biden doing particularly well in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Biden is leading Trump by 1 point in the Badger State after previously trailing him by 4 points in a February survey.

In Michigan and Pennsylvania, the two candidates are tied, with support from 45 percent of voters apiece. A February poll showed Trump ahead in Michigan by 2 points and ahead in Pennsylvania by 6 points.

Biden weakened Trump’s lead in Nevada, narrowing it from 6 points in a February survey to 2 points in Tuesday’s poll.

The incumbent also closed the gap on Trump in Arizona, though he still trails by 5 points, and in North Carolina, where the former President is still leading by 6 points.

Brett Samuels, “Biden gains on Trump in 6 battleground states in new poll,” March 26th, 2024.

The poll, which can be seen here, surveyed 4,932 likely voters between March 8th and March 15th and has a margin of 3 points; it suggests that while Biden is far from guaranteed to win the upcoming election in 2020, it shows that Trump’s political success is far from permanent. 

While Trump has more consistent showings of support in polls, Biden has shown some strength in challenging Trump, with another poll by Morning Consult showing Biden leading the former President 44 percent to Trump’s 43. Still, it remains challenging to determine who has an advantage as much of their differences in polling fall within the margin of error. 

A Close Race

While it is tempting to try and predict the election results here and now, there is still a lot of time between now and November. It is also difficult to make one-to-one comparisons with what current polling suggests. 

While Trump has led Biden in the past and has been more consistent, he doesn’t have a popularity advantage. FiveThirtyEight reports that an average of 52.3 percent of Americans disapprove of the former President. Biden also suffers from weak polling, averaging 54.5 percent of Americans disapproving of his current administration, which is far too close to suggest that either one holds a strong position over the other. The Economist puts the average polling between Biden and Trump at 44 percent to 44 percent. Simply put, Trump will likely lose his lead, and the election will be far closer than he can admit.

Biden also has a major advantage that he could use between now and November. In February, he raised an estimated $21.3 million, compared to Trump’s $10.9 million, almost twice as much money as the former President could raise. As a total of this cycle, Biden beats Trump again, with an estimated $114.7 million to Trump’s $99.4 milion. While money in and of itself doesn’t win elections, it allows for more canvasser recruitment, more campaign offices, and events, all of which could help improve Biden’s chances before November. 

Trump also has a disadvantage, which is far from traditional in an election. As I noted in my recent piece on Trump’s trial date, the former President will likely lose valuable time due to his legal troubles. As I explained:

While it is difficult to fully predict what will happen going forward, especially with the trial, a few things could impact the election results this November. 

Trump’s absence from the campaign trail could prevent him from lambasting his opponent as much and lead to a decline in his momentum. With the announced trial date, more of Trump’s time will be spent in his defense and not on the campaign trail. That could also mean less campaign-oriented media attention for the GOP nominee and more attention for Biden, allowing the President to recover in polling. Another component of the trial is its potential for negative attention to Trump’s alleged activity with Stormy Daniels, possibly turning independent voters away from Trump.

Conor Kelly, “Trump Trial Over Stormy Daniels to Start in April,” Mar 25 2024

While it is difficult to fully ascertain how much Trump’s absence from the campaign trail will hurt him, it is still worth considering. With several months between now and November, every bit of attention is critical to both campaigns and the more time Trump is off the campaign trail, the more time Biden will have to boost his campaign. Trump may be able to turn the trial into a fundraising source, but his momentum will likely still suffer among independent voters. 

For now, it appears that Biden has closed the gap and could be on the path to further pressing his advantage against his GOP challenger. While there is no guarantee that such a push may occur, the Biden campaign will surely be excited about the path. 

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References

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Easley, Cameron, and Eli Yokely. 2024. “2024 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump.” Morning Consult Pro. https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling (March 26, 2024).

Kelly, Conor. 2024. “Trump Trial Over Stormy Daniels to Start in April.” Progressive American. https://theprogressiveamerican.com/2024/03/25/trump-trial-over-stormy-daniels-to-start-in-april/ (March 26, 2024).

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O’Brien, Rebecca Davis. 2024. “Biden Widens His Financial Lead Over Trump.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/20/us/politics/trump-biden-campaign-finance.html (March 26, 2024).

Pengelly, Martin. 2024. “‘Biden Bump Is Real’: President Gains on Trump in Six Battleground States.” The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/26/election-trump-biden-latest-polls (March 26, 2024).

Samuels, Brett. 2024. “Biden Gains on Trump in 6 Battleground States in New Poll.” The Hill. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4556145-biden-gains-on-trump-six-battleground-states-survey/ (March 26, 2024).

“Trump v Biden: Who’s Ahead in the Latest Polls?” 2024. The Economist. https://economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election (March 26, 2024).

Wiederkehr, Ryan Best,et al.,” FiveThirtyEight. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ (March 26, 2024).