The Progressive American

He will be the first President in American history to be a convicted felon

In a historic and entirely unprecedented moment in American history, Donald J. Trump, the former President of the United States and presumptive nominee for the Republican ticket for president, was convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records. The conviction, which is sure to be appealed, means that Trump has once again made legal history as the first president to be convicted of a felony. However, it also means that the very nature of his campaign and bid for the White House is now under threat.

A Conviction Finally

The conviction, which some expected yesterday, came on Thursday, May 30, 2024. After two days of deliberation, it is not only the first of its kind but one that was far from guaranteed. Jurors had to consider every single charge that was presented by the prosecution, and even further than that, they had to determine whether Trump was guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. If even one of the jurors had an iota of doubt, the jury would be hung, and Trump could claim a mistrial. That not only didn’t happen, but the jury went further; they demonstrated to the American people that he was undeniably guilty—a criminal.

Such a shift in status will almost certainly be significant not only in the election but in the history of the United States itself. As a man requesting the American people’s trust, a conviction and subsequent sentencing could undermine Trump’s ability to run as an effective candidate.

Will Trump go to Jail?

While Trump’s conviction is historic, it remains unclear if he will see the inside of a cell. While Trump is a convicted felon, and the charges for which he was found guilty carry a sentence of 1.3 to 4 years in jail, it remains difficult to ascertain the likelihood of jail. Trump’s sentence for his crimes has not yet been set, and he will be facing sentencing on July 11^th. As it stands, Judge Merchan has noted that Trump will be allowed to return home and free without bail, though that may change if Merchan decides to sentence the former president to any jail time.

That freedom may work in Trump’s favor, as it would allow him to continue his campaigning despite the likelihood that he will be able to politically recover from being the first president to be convicted of a crime.

What does this mean for the election?

While it is difficult to determine the immediate impact of Donald Trump’s conviction, it remains clear that it is not the outcome that Trump wants. While he is leading Biden on average in multiple swing states, that lead is far from strong, as I noted before. If Trump’s criminality is utilized adequately in the coming five months, it could undermine his polling leads and could lead to a shift in the Biden campaign’s chances.

‘If’ being the operative word here.

Polling on the Trump conviction is far from standard, as all of our data exists in the realm of a hypothetical conviction. The question of whether or not Trump would be convicted is no longer hypothetical and could create a shift in how voters react to the former president. Previous polling showed that if convicted, 9 percent of Trump supporters would reconsider voting for the former president, though reconsidering doesn’t necessarily mean they would change their vote. Still, even a 10 percent shift could be the difference between a victory or a loss for the former president, and with how close polling has been, it is unlikely Trump can afford any loss of support from this conviction.  While a lot can happen from now, one thing is certain. We live in interesting times.

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References

Berman, Mark, Shayna Jacobs, Devlin Barrett, and Derek Hawkins. 2024. “Donald Trump Found Guilty on All Counts in New York Hush Money Trial.” Washington Post, May 30, 2024. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/30/trump-guilty-verdict-hush-money-trial/.

Bromwich, Jonah E., and Ben Protess. 2024. “Live Updates: Trump Guilty on All Counts in Hush-Money Case.” The New York Times, May 30, 2024, sec. New York. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/30/nyregion/trump-trial-verdict.

Dorn, Sara. n.d. “Biden Vs. Trump 2024 Election Polls: Biden Leads Trump By 2 Points—But Loses With RFK Jr. On Ballot, Latest Survey Shows.” Forbes, sec. Business. Accessed May 30, 2024. https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/05/30/biden-vs-trump-2024-election-polls-biden-leads-trump-by-2-points-but-loses-with-rfk-jr-on-ballot-latest-survey-shows/.

Kelly, Conor. 2024. “Biden Polling Improves: A Possible Sign for Growing Strength.” The Progressive American (blog). March 26, 2024. https://theprogressiveamerican.com/2024/03/26/biden-polling-improves-a-possible-sign-for-growing-strength/.